Q1 2025 Quarterly Report
Good morning investors,
As we close out the first quarter of 2025, I’m pleased to share our latest portfolio update.
Despite a rocky start to the year, the portfolio continues to reflect strength where it matters: income generation, quality businesses, and long-term opportunity.
Portfolio Performance & key metrics
Total Return YTD: -2.21% (vs. S&P 500: ~10.2%)
2-Year Total Return: +54.3% (vs. S&P 500: +57.5%)
Q1 Performance: -4.66% (Jan: +3.67%, Feb: -3.67%, Mar: -4.66%)
Dividend Yield: 3.8% (Dividend Bets + ETFs, target range: 3.2% - 3.8%)
Average Holding Time: 26 months, “buy good companies and do nothing.”
Risk score: Portfolio remains balanced after market volatility post-liberation day and tariffs rollout, risk at 5/10.
Portfolio highlights and thoughts
I'm very confident about the portfolio composition: 60% of value in mature, dividend-generating positions and 40% moon shots.
eToro portfolio snapshot, check it live here.
The year-to-date dip finder shows VXUS headging in this volatile period. Microsoft has delivered results and seems to be the most reliable and predictable tech giant. NVDA is still down year to date, and the small position already grew 30%. I will be looking to add more to this stock. I will continue to dollar-cost average (DCA) into the energy sector to maintain the dividend flow. I'm waiting for a new signal from Apple to decide what to do, on hold for now. I believe in Google; the position is well placed, and the stock is still down from its highs. LVMH (MC.PA) has been a bad buy, and I'm looking to reallocate the capital and more.
NVDA: We initiated a small but meaningful position. Momentum and fundamentals finally aligned with my entry expectations.
GOOG: A clear standout. I/O 2025 showed the best integration of AI across real products.
MCPA: Will likely exit. Fundamentals have diverged from our core thesis, and the opportunity cost is growing.
Apple: Concerned. Despite its scale and brand power, innovation felt stale this quarter, and I foresee a weaker quarter ahead.
Amazon & Shopify: My picks to lead the rebound. Operating leverage is kicking in as logistics and AI investment pay off.
Crypto: Quiet strength. BTC and ETH now act like high-beta tech stocks, and this cycle, they’re holding up.
VNQ & O: Dividend safe bets. Rates stabilized, but commercial real estate remains under structural pressure.
The fast rebound in May makes me ponder the "rule of the ten best days."
You get dramatically lower returns if you miss the best ten days in the market. Take the S&P 500 return since 2015, +12%, which I'd be happy with any day of the week. But missing those ten best days would bring performance down to -10%.
It turns out that in turbulent periods, doing nothing pays off.
Howard Marks calls it emotional discipline, not brilliance or IQ, but the rare ability to do nothing when others panic.
In investing, as in life, sometimes the hardest thing is also the right thing: to stay the course.
Tom Lee's last slide as he reacts on Moody's downgrade on US, watch it here.
Looking Ahead
Q2 opens with a market rebound, as the S&P regains ground and marches back to February highs while gold and crypto surge to all-time highs.
I’ll stay anchored in fundamentals, evaluate the exit from $MC.PA, and be opportunistic about price dislocations.
The goal remains unchanged: grow the portfolio to $1M, live off the dividends, and enjoy the compounding ride.
Sincerely,
John Ostrowski
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
